← Explore Capabilities
Dimension: Learning Speed Read about assessment rating system
Simulate processes
Ability to simulate the interactions and decisions of actors (e.g., participants, stakeholders, facilitators, experts), subprocesses, or entire processes (e.g., for rapid process iteration and learning).
MINIMAL
EXTREME
Maturity
Opportunity
Importance
Neglectedness
Transnational
How this is performed now...
Collective dialogue organizers
Collective dialogue organizers can run processes with simulated participants, though more research is needed to resolve their fidelity.
Process organizers
Process organizers typically rely on real-world experimentation to learn from. Existing examples of simulated trials are primitive agent environments and do not track the complexity of end-to-end processes.
Related Goals and Research Questions
Goal: Deliberative processes that can be tested and refined before implementation with real participants.
How can we develop realistic simulation environments that accurately predict how different deliberative formats will perform according to different design choices?
Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate processes
Can AI generate its own suggested changes and test them to search the latent space for optimal solutions?
AI/ML Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate processes
How can lessons from speculative execution and speculative decoding help increase the availability of deliberative processes through reduced costs?
Simulation & Modeling AI/ML
Related Capability: Simulate processes
How can we solve the technical blockers to effective and truth-worthy multi-agent simulation and modelling?
Simulation & Modeling AI/ML
Related Capability: Simulate processes
What are the best methods to measure the accuracy of simulations?
Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate processes
What hybrid approaches can combine fast simulation with selective human input to optimize both speed and accuracy for urgent decisions?
Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate processes
Goal: Designers who understand the validity boundaries and appropriate use cases for deliberative process simulation
What simulation fidelity level (agent realism, dialogue authenticity, decision distributions) accurately predicts outcomes for specific deliberative formats under real-world constraints, and where does increased fidelity stop improving predictive value?
Urgent
Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate prototyping
For what uses, in what contexts and with what level of faithfulness is it helpful or appropriate to use simulations, and what are the philosophical, moral, and political implications?
Urgent
Simulation & Modeling Ethics & Philosophy
Related Capability: Simulate prototyping
Goal: Deliberative processes that can be tested and refined before implementation with real participants
What design variables in deliberative formats can AI systems reliably identify as leverage points for optimization through automated multi-agent simulation?
Urgent
AI/ML Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate prototyping
Can AI generate its own suggested changes and test them to search the latent space for optimal solutions?
Urgent
AI/ML
Related Capability: Simulate prototyping
How can lessons from speculative execution and speculative decoding help increase the availability of deliberative processes through reduced costs?
Urgent
AI/ML Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate prototyping
What are the key technical blockers (agent behavior calibration, emergent group dynamics modeling, preference faithfulness) to effective and trustworthy multi-agent simulation, and which are tractable with current methods?
Urgent
AI/ML Simulation & Modeling
Related Capability: Simulate prototyping
Related Resources
Democracy on Mars 3: New Tools for Popular Sovereignty
Research
Tantum Collins
Agent-Mediated Social Choice
Proposes autonomous AI agents ("voting avatars") that debate and vote on behalf of citizens, addressing the cognitive burden of direct democracy in complex societies through compact preference representation. Umberto Grandi argues these systems would leverage AI research in multiagent systems and...
Research
Umberto Grandi
Statistical Foundations of Virtual Democracy
Examines which voting rules are robust to prediction errors in "virtual democracy" systems that learn individual preferences and aggregate predicted votes. The research proves that the classic Borda count rule is robust to prediction errors, whereas any voting rule belonging to the wide family of...
Research
Anson Kahng, Min Kyung Lee, Ritesh Noothigattu, Ariel Procaccia and Christos-Alexandros Psomas
General Social Agents
Presents an approach for building AI "general" agents that can predict human behavior in novel settings without requiring extensive setting-specific training data. The agents use theory-grounded natural language instructions combined with existing empirical data and knowledge from language model ...
Research
Benjamin S. Manning and John J. Horton
AI-Enhanced Deliberative Democracy and the Future of the Collective Will
Examines design choices behind computational frameworks for finding common ground across collective preferences, situating AI-assisted preference elicitation within the historical context of opinion polls. Emphasizes that preferences are shaped by context and seldom objectively captured, explorin...
Research
Manon Revel and Théophile Pénigaud
Policy Priority Reference
Policy Priority Inference (PPI) is a research programme and open-source toolkit that models the causal link between government expenditure and policy outcomes using agent-based modeling (a transparent AI approach). It helps governments measure public spending impact on development outcomes and su...
Infrastructure
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), and the United Nations Development Programme.
Shareholder Democracy with AI Representatives
Proposes AI-enabled representatives trained on individual shareholder preferences to vote on their behalf in corporate governance. Addresses the problem that mutual funds concentrate voting power among few asset managers who lack insight into individual preferences. Argues this approach could out...
Research
Suyash Fulay, Sercan Demir, Galen Hines-Pierce, Helene Landemore and Michiel A. Bakker
Generative Agent Simulations of 1,000 People
We present a novel agent architecture that simulates the attitudes and behaviors of 1,052 real individuals—applying large language models to qualitative interviews about their lives, then measuring how well these agents replicate the attitudes and behaviors of the individuals that they represent.
Research
Joon Sung Park, Carolyn Q. Zou, Aaron Shaw, Benjamin Mako Hill, Carrie Cai, Meredith Ringel Morris, Robb Willer, Percy Liang, Michael S. Bernstein
Simile.ai
Simile is a simulation platform for human behavior. AI-driven simulations show how and why customers, employees, or populations respond to change.
Experimental Practice
The Simile Team
Human-centred mechanism design with Democratic AI
Simulated participants built with imitation learning have been used to provide high-volume feedback on possible income redistribution policies (DeepMind, 2022).
Experimental Practice
DeepMind
Deliberativa deliberative labs
Deliberativa headed 'deliberative labs' ahead of both global citizens' assemblies to test out methodological questions of time e.g. best method for multi-lingual deliberation or data capture.
Experimental Practice
Deliberativa
Language Agents as Digital Representatives in Collective Decision-Making
Paper proposes training LLMs as "digital representatives" that can stand in for individual humans in collective decision-making processes, expressing their preferences in group interactions like consensus-finding. It explains the concept of digital representation, defines metrics for evaluating ...
Experimental Practice
DeepMind
Plurals: A System for Guiding LLMs via Simulated Social Ensembles
Introduces Plurals, a Python library for pluralistic AI deliberation using simulated social ensembles with LLM Agents, customizable Structures inspired by deliberative democracy, and Moderators overseeing discussions. The system integrates government datasets to create nationally representative p...
Research
Ashkinaze et al.
Artificial Utopia: Simulation and artificially intelligent agents for exploring Utopian and democratized futures
This paper propose a novel research agenda focusing on ‘utopian’ democratization efforts with formal and computational methods as well as with artificial intelligence – this agenda is labelled ‘Artificial Utopia’. Artificial Utopias provide safe testing grounds for new political ideas and economi...
Research
Yannick Oswald